We're definitely undergoing a rate of change that feels at least as fast as things were changing in the early dot-com days. This time, the change isn't just to society at large, but also to the software engineering profession — so there is both a societal angle to this as well as a personal angle.

I think the changes to our society will be profound, but it's so hard to know which way to bet on this. It seems clear to me that AI will quickly exceed the intellectual capability of most people — if not in depth in one particular domain, certainly in breadth and general repurposability. But whether this is good or bad depends a lot on the question of "bounty vs. spread" (using language from The Second Machine Age).

It's very clear to me that AI will bring a lot of bounty. It's equally clear to me that, unless we change some laws and regulations, the spread of that bounty will be very concentrated toward intellectual property owners. I have no idea how to change this, at least for America, because it seems very difficult in a democracy to do things proactively to avoid disaster. It's sometimes easier to enact things reactively once disaster happens. Then there's the question of whether our reactive response will be wise and proportionate or whether we will destroy ourselves out of spite or desperation.

As to the personal changes you asked about:

• I have some trouble deciding what job to get next because part of me is afraid to lock into one employer who goes down a path in AI that may be obviated by a different approach. For instance, imagine if a year ago you had joined an employer who only allowed Codex. You would today be behind, since the industry largely uses Claude Code.

• I'm a little worried about where I live. If we don't spread the bounty of AI and people don't perceive its benefits in their own lives, there could be a backlash against people who've worked in technology. I haven't yet heard of people being physically attacked or killed for their involvement somewhere in the AI stack, but it's not unimaginable.

• I have not changed my investments at all based on AI. Instead, over the last five years, I've pivoted my investment philosophy based on my conviction that the American government and its polity will be unable to address what will soon likely become a true debt crisis, complete with rampant inflation and other shocks.

You ask what I think my life will look like in 5 to 10 years. My genuine hope for society as a whole is that:

• The clear and obvious benefits of AI can be distributed more broadly and perceived by everyday people.

• Its reins of control are not held by just a few people.

• The world resists the temptation to get into international escalations of AI-assisted war tech.

It's a little bit like wishing for world peace. Doesn't make the wish less meaningful.