Raw code output is no longer as differentiating (though I bet the best senior engineers can still output more production-quality code because of characteristics below). And in a funny way, I wonder whether the ability to communicate clearly & persuasively across functions might be diminishing in importance as more companies can be built out of just 2-5 people.

"Instincts," for lack of a better word, feel even more important. For instance, I often get a sense even before checking the code for ways in which AI would likely have made mistakes. Or the sense of how to factor a larger codebase such that the code is componentized in a way that minimizes dependencies.

The latter is something the AI is obviously getting better at with each revision, so I wonder how long it remains a differentiator for a great senior engineer. Overall, that's perhaps the biggest theme of my current take: that it's unclear to me how much longer the average senior engineer will have an advantage over AI.